Free white paper · Masterclass
Shrinkage, Honestly
The building block most corrupted by wishful thinking — how to measure it from reality, forecast it, and stop it quietly wrecking your staffing.
Volume gets the modelling attention; AHT gets some; shrinkage gets an inherited percentage, carried flat across the year and quietly chosen to be the figure the operation wishes it had. And because shrinkage is the last operation in the staffing calculation, every point of that optimism flows straight through to headcount. This masterclass covers what shrinkage really is, why a small error scales the whole plan, how to split planned from unplanned, how to measure it from reality and forecast it by period, and how to reduce the part you control — without pretending away the part you don’t. Worked numbers throughout.
Get the paper by email
Enter your email and we’ll send you the PDF — and add you to the fortnightly ccPlanning newsletter. Unsubscribe any time.
Delivered via Buttondown. We’ll never share your address. By subscribing you join the ccPlanning newsletter.
Thanks — your download is ready
Check your inbox for the newsletter confirmation too. If the download doesn’t start, use the button below.
Download the PDF (7 pages)What’s inside
- The most corrupted number in the plan — why shrinkage is wrong, and wrong in the same hopeful direction
- What shrinkage actually is — the categories, and how it differs from occupancy and utilisation
- Why it’s where plans die — the last operation in the sum, and a 24-head swing from one assumption
- Planned vs unplanned — two different problems, two different levers
- Measure it from reality, not the target — the optimism trap and how to reconcile it
- Forecast it by period — a weekly profile, not a flat annual figure
- Reducing the part you control — placement, a better-run floor, and an honest limit
- An operating discipline and the shrinkage formulas
A masterclass in the ccPlanning series. Pair it with shrinkage: the planner’s hardest input, the shrinkage assumption that’s always wrong, and holiday and leave allocation.