The Forecasting Track
11 lessons · 6 micro + 5 deep dives · exam & certificateWork through them in order — foundations first, then the craft, then how you know it’s any good. Each lesson has a short self-check quiz; the track ends with an exam that earns a certificate.
- 1
The three building blocks of a forecast
Volume, AHT and shrinkage — and why nailing volume alone still leaves you wrong.
- 2
Reading a volume curve
The four patterns hiding in one line: trend, seasonality, day-of-week and intraday.
- 3
The intraday profile
How a daily total becomes an interval-level staffing plan — and the traps that distort it.
- 4
The methods ladder
Naive to Holt-Winters — start simple, climb only when the data asks, and prove it out-of-sample.
- 5
Forecasting AHT (not assuming it)
Why average handle time drifts, what moves it, and how to give it its own forecast.
- 6
Shrinkage is a forecast, not a number
Planned vs unplanned, and why one inherited percentage all year quietly under-staffs you.
- 7
Cleaning your history
Outliers, spikes and outages — deciding what to keep, adjust or strip before you forecast.
- 8
Blended & multi-channel forecasting
Calls, chat, email, async — concurrency, urgency, and why you can’t just add channels together.
- 9
Measuring accuracy honestly
MAPE vs WAPE — and why bias is the error that hurts most.
- 10
Forecast value add (FVA)
Is your sophisticated model actually beating naive? The humbling check that closes the loop.
- 11
Stress-testing the plan
A forecast is a range, not a number. Which input error moves the roster most — and how to buffer the one that does.
Final exam & certificate
Finished the track? Take the 15-question exam — drawn at random across all eleven modules — and pass at 80% to download a personalised PDF certificate.
Take the final exam →